How Market Rotay works.
Four ways to explore the evidence. Here is what each page shows, how the scores and selections are made, and where the limits are.
Find your way around
Markets gives you the broad view: eleven sector ETFs compared with SPY, plus seven market relationships. These dashboard ratio charts start at 100 at the beginning of the selected window. They show how leadership changed over that window; they are not a ranking of every ETF or a set of investment recommendations.
Macro puts official-source economic history alongside the market view. Each indicator has its own observation period and update timing. Macro observations do not receive Rotay or Rotatio Scores.
Explore the Rotay is the wider chart library. Search or filter ETFs and ratios, compare the saved trend scores and available recovery, inflection and daily-change evidence, and open a chart for a closer look. A chart can appear in Explore without being selected for Daily Edition. A missing score or signal means it is unavailable or does not qualify, not that its value is zero.
Daily Edition is the dated editorial shortlist: Strongest Trends plus Daily Mover, Recovery Watch and Inflection Point? when their separate rules produce a qualifying selection. Choosing an older edition shows the selections saved for that date. The shortlist is a starting point for research, not the entire library.
Changing a chart window changes the view, not the edition or its saved score. Markets, Explore and Daily Edition use saved end-of-day market data. Always read the edition date; none of these pages is a live trading feed.
Reading Macro data
Macro charts use official-source series from agencies including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, Treasury and Department of Labor. Use the units shown on each chart: a percentage, an index level, a yield and a dollar amount are different measurements.
The observation period is the period the number describes. The release date is when the source published it; the last successful check is when Market Rotay checked the feed. A successful check can return unchanged observations. Monthly or quarterly data should not be expected to change every day.
Where a release date cannot be verified, the page keeps that uncertainty explicit. A recent check does not establish a recent economic release. Failed refreshes can retain the last good observations, so read the status and displayed dates together.
Economic data can be revised. The saved series contain available vintages and earlier history; they are not a reconstruction of what an investor knew on every historical date. Comparisons between Macro and market charts are context for investigation, not evidence that one caused the other or a forecast of returns.
behind the potato
Scores and selections
How the model was built
ChatGPT and Codex were used to help design and implement Market Rotay’s scoring model and the software behind it. Published scores are calculated by programmed rules using saved market data. The model’s components, weights and thresholds are research choices; AI assistance does not establish that they predict future returns.
Daily Edition: What’s Changing
Daily Mover, Recovery Watch and Inflection Point? are three separate editorial selections alongside Strongest Trends. Explore also exposes available evidence across the wider library; a library filter is not the same thing as the single selection saved in Daily Edition.
Daily Mover
Highlights the ETF with the largest absolute one-day percentage change, up or down, using dividend- and split-adjusted closes. Any ETF, including an unscored ETF, can qualify with two valid, positive closes on consecutive trading sessions and no unresolved identity hold. Ratios are excluded. Its chart defaults to three months (up to 63 trading sessions), with 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages. It can repeat a Strongest Trends selection. If no ETF qualifies, we say so.
Recovery Watch
Highlights an ETF showing early recovery evidence after a meaningful decline. Its Recovery Signal weighs long-term location (20%), drawdown (15%), momentum improvement (25%), relative-strength improvement (20%) and trend confirmation (20%). A score of at least 60 plus improvement and stabilization gates is required; if none qualifies, we say so. Established leaders with Rotay Score 85 or higher graduate out. This signal is descriptive and has not been validated against future returns.
Inflection Point?
Highlights a confirmed change across the 200-day average after a sustained trend. It requires three closes on the new side and a distance buffer, excludes overlapping stories, and can stay empty on quiet days. It describes a change in direction; it does not predict returns.
Trend scores and the Strongest Trends shortlist
Explore displays eligible ETF Rotay Scores and ratio Rotatio Scores for the chosen edition. Daily Edition applies an additional selection policy to create its Strongest Trends shortlist. A high library score does not guarantee a place in that shortlist.
We aim for three ETF charts and two ratio charts, with 80 as the current minimum score. Distinct stories and reduced overlap matter more than filling slots. If ratios are weak or repetitive, other qualifying charts may take their place; fewer than five is valid. Archived selections retain the rules used when saved.
ETF Rotay Score
Summarizes long-term trend, relative momentum across eligible ETFs, volatility-adjusted momentum, and trend consistency / drawdown behavior. The four weights are 35.3%, 29.4%, 23.5% and 11.8%, respectively. Oscillators and short-lived activity bonuses do not contribute.
Rotatio Score
Measures how clear and persistent a ratio's leadership is: 30% six-to-twelve-month trend, 25% agreement across available one/three/six/twelve-month windows, 20% trend quality, 15% acceleration and 10% long-term range position. A strongly falling ratio can score highly. Always check the favored side: neither a high score nor outperformance means either fund will rise.
Labels and cautions
Hot Rotato requires 95 for ETFs or 88 for ratios. Hot Rotato is a caution about chasing a strong reading. This is not a sell signal or proof that a decline is imminent. The badge uses score thresholds; the extension warning is a separate check.
Fresh Rotato marks a chart’s first selection in this archive, which begins January 2, 2024. Back on the Menu marks a return after at least 20 trading sessions absent from the scored shortlist. These labels describe appearances, not expected returns.
Continuing story means selected in at least one of the previous five editions.
Potentially overextended (or Stretched relative leadership for ratios) is a separate experimental check. Distance from both 50- and 200-session geometric trend averages must exceed two horizon-scaled volatility units, plus minimum distances of 5%/10% for ETFs or 3%/6% for ratios. Geometric averages are used here for symmetric ratio comparisons; chart overlays remain simple averages. Hot Rotato still means a score of at least 95 for ETFs or 88 for ratios. Neither label predicts a reversal.
Chart data and limitations
Reading the charts
Strongest Trends, Recovery Watch and Inflection Point? default to one year (252 trading sessions), with 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages calculated using earlier history. The three-month view uses 20-day and 50-day SMAs. Ratio averages are calculated on the ratio itself. Ratio explanations keep the first ETF (the numerator) as the subject: it is outperforming or lagging the second ETF. ETF charts show USD prices adjusted for splits and dividends. In Explore and Daily Edition, ratio charts divide the two adjusted prices. The Markets dashboard instead rebases each displayed ratio to 100 at the start of its selected window. In either presentation, a rising A/B ratio means A outperformed B, even if both fell. Compare the change and favored side, not the numerical ratio levels of unrelated pairs. Explore’s weekly view retains 100-week and 200-week averages as context. These weekly events do not add points to the new scores.
History and coverage
Market Rotay uses saved Tiingo split- and dividend-adjusted closing prices. The page shows the latest saved-data date, and each edition is dated. This is end-of-day research, not a live feed. Missing sessions are never filled. Scoring eligibility requires 254 consecutive observations; some calculations use up to 253. Daily Mover has its own two-session requirement.
Eligibility follows the accepted instrument and strategy history for each saved edition. An unresolved identity review, insufficient current-strategy history or missing observations can leave a chart unscored while older prices remain visible as context. A Daily Mover has its own two-session requirement. Consult the chart’s history-review label rather than assuming every visible price is eligible for scoring. Archived editions retain their original decisions.
The universe is today’s accepted list with current-vintage adjusted history, not a survivorship-free backtest. Component weights and thresholds are research choices, not calibrated return probabilities. ETF and ratio scores have different meanings.
Before you invest
Market Data from Tiingo.com. Use of this site and its data is subject to our Terms of Use, including restrictions on data exports and redistribution.
Market Rotay is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Scores, labels, and chart selections describe market conditions; they do not predict returns or account for your personal financial circumstances.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and due diligence, consider your goals and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial adviser as needed before making your own investment decisions.
Data and backtest limitations
Historical backtests are hypothetical, not actual investment results. They use today’s selected ETF universe and currently available adjusted historical prices, which can introduce survivorship and hindsight bias. Repeated selections and overlapping holding periods are not independent observations. Reported average returns are not the returns of an investable portfolio and, unless stated otherwise, exclude trading costs and taxes.
Data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate, and scores and methods may change. Verify information independently before relying on it. Market charts use saved end-of-day data; Macro charts follow their source release schedules. Neither is a live market feed.