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The charts worth a look.
Follow the shifts across 399 ETFs and 488 ratio charts. See what’s changing, explore the Strongest Trends, and investigate the charts behind them.
Hot Rotatoes may be too hot to handle. Proceed with caution.
What’s Changing
Daily moves, early recoveries, and possible changes in direction.
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Strongest Trends
Scored selections across ETFs and relative-strength relationships. Up to five distinct stories, when they qualify.
Distinct stories, with room for exceptional signals. Hot Rotato starts at 95 for ETFs and 88 for ratios.
Explore the rotay.
399 ETFs. 488 relationships. Find the chart behind the story.
Markets follows the selected archive date. Macro has its own observation periods and capture dates. Open a chart to explore its history.
Categories follow the ETF being tracked. For ratios, they follow the first ETF—the numerator.
| Chart | Theme | Score and meaning | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
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Ask Market Rotay
Pick a question. Explore the evidence behind the scores.
Answers come directly from the selected edition’s saved scores and history.
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behind the potato
How we choose
How the model was built
ChatGPT and Codex were used to help design and implement Market Rotay’s scoring model and the software behind it. Published scores are calculated by programmed rules using saved market data. The model’s components, weights and thresholds are research choices; AI assistance does not establish that they predict future returns.
What’s Changing
Three separate ways to surface changes in the market. These selections sit alongside Strongest Trends and have their own rules.
Daily Mover
Highlights the ETF with the largest absolute one-day percentage change, up or down, using dividend- and split-adjusted closes. Any ETF, including an unscored ETF, can qualify with two valid, positive closes on consecutive trading sessions and no unresolved identity hold. Ratios are excluded. Its chart defaults to three months (up to 63 trading sessions), with 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages. It can repeat a Strongest Trends selection. If no ETF qualifies, we say so.
Recovery Watch
Highlights an ETF showing early recovery evidence after a meaningful decline. Its Recovery Signal weighs long-term location (20%), drawdown (15%), momentum improvement (25%), relative-strength improvement (20%) and trend confirmation (20%). A score of at least 60 plus improvement and stabilization gates is required; if none qualifies, we say so. Established leaders with Rotay Score 85 or higher graduate out. This signal is descriptive and has not been validated against future returns.
Inflection Point?
Highlights a confirmed change across the 200-day average after a sustained trend. It requires three closes on the new side and a distance buffer, excludes overlapping stories, and can stay empty on quiet days. It describes a change in direction; it does not predict returns.
Strongest Trends
We aim for three ETF charts and two ratio charts, with 80 as the current minimum score. Distinct stories and reduced overlap matter more than filling slots. If ratios are weak or repetitive, other qualifying charts may take their place; fewer than five is valid. Archived selections retain the rules used when saved.
ETF Rotay Score
Summarizes long-term trend, relative momentum across eligible ETFs, volatility-adjusted momentum, and trend consistency / drawdown behavior. The four weights are 35.3%, 29.4%, 23.5% and 11.8%, respectively. Oscillators and short-lived activity bonuses do not contribute.
Rotatio Score
Measures how clear and persistent a ratio's leadership is: 30% six-to-twelve-month trend, 25% agreement across available one/three/six/twelve-month windows, 20% trend quality, 15% acceleration and 10% long-term range position. A strongly falling ratio can score highly. Always check the favored side: neither a high score nor outperformance means either fund will rise.
Labels and cautions
Hot Rotato requires 95 for ETFs or 88 for ratios. Hot Rotato is a caution about chasing a strong reading. Our limited retrospective six-month study found negative average returns among featured ETF Hot Rotatoes and weak average relative follow-through among ratio Hot Rotatoes. Results varied widely, and repeated observations are not independent. This is not a sell signal or proof that a decline is imminent. The badge uses score thresholds; the extension warning is a separate check.
Fresh Rotato marks a chart’s first selection in this archive, which begins January 2, 2024. Back on the Menu marks a return after at least 20 trading sessions absent from the scored five. These labels describe appearances, not expected returns.
Continuing story means selected in at least one of the previous five editions.
Potentially overextended (or Stretched relative leadership for ratios) is a separate experimental check. Distance from both 50- and 200-session geometric trend averages must exceed two horizon-scaled volatility units, plus minimum distances of 5%/10% for ETFs or 3%/6% for ratios. Geometric averages are used here for symmetric ratio comparisons; chart overlays remain simple averages. Hot Rotato still means a score of at least 95 for ETFs or 88 for ratios. Neither label predicts a reversal.
Chart data and limitations
Reading the charts
Strongest Trends, Recovery Watch and Inflection Point? default to one year (252 trading sessions), with 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages calculated using earlier history. The three-month view uses 20-day and 50-day SMAs. Ratio averages are calculated on the ratio itself. Ratio explanations keep the first ETF (the numerator) as the subject: it is outperforming or lagging the second ETF. ETF axes show USD prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Ratio axes divide the two adjusted prices; a rising A/B ratio means A outperformed B, even if both fell. The chart explorer retains 100-week and 200-week averages as context. These weekly events do not add points to the new scores.
History and coverage
Market Rotay uses saved Tiingo split- and dividend-adjusted closing prices. The page shows the latest saved-data date, and each edition is dated. This is end-of-day research, not a live feed. Missing sessions are never filled. Scoring eligibility requires 254 consecutive observations; some calculations use up to 253. Daily Mover has its own two-session requirement.
AIQ, AWAY, IPAY and SHLD identity reviews are resolved for current editions. IPAY signals use its strategy history from January 29, 2024; POWR signals use its strategy history from October 29, 2025. POWR and its ratios remain unscored until 254 consecutive current-strategy sessions are available. POWR can qualify for Daily Mover with two valid current-strategy closes. Earlier prices are retained as clearly labeled predecessor context; archived editions retain their original decisions. The universe is today's accepted list with current-vintage adjusted history, not a survivorship-free backtest. Component weights and thresholds are research choices, not calibrated return probabilities. Separate ETF and ratio scores have different meanings.
Before you invest
Market Data from Tiingo.com. Use of this site and its data is subject to our Terms of Use, including restrictions on data exports and redistribution.
Market Rotay is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Scores, labels, and chart selections describe market conditions; they do not predict returns or account for your personal financial circumstances.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and due diligence, consider your goals and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial adviser as needed before making your own investment decisions.
Data and backtest limitations
Historical backtests are hypothetical, not actual investment results. They use today’s selected ETF universe and currently available adjusted historical prices, which can introduce survivorship and hindsight bias. Repeated selections and overlapping holding periods are not independent observations. Reported average returns are not the returns of an investable portfolio and, unless stated otherwise, exclude trading costs and taxes.
Data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate, and scores and methods may change. Verify information independently before relying on it. This preview uses historical data and is not a live market feed.